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19 MAR 2026

re Tehran

Not Israel, Mr Trump, nor Arabs are interested with burden of 'mowing the grass' every 3-4 years. 

Financial pressure was core component of program creating conditions.

Recent kinetic operations have been robust and consequential.
Iranian regime responded as (maybe some) expected, creating chaos in oil and financial markets to pressure Mr Trump into declaring victory, and going home.

One potential scenario however, involves Mr Trump and Admin advancing 'policy maneuver' (beyond releasing more oil from strategic reserves) where conditions exist for oil prices to drop 15-20%.  DOW Jones industrial avg might gain 2000+ points.  The additional revenue to regime resulting from revised (more accommodating) sanctions disarms extensively weakened regime of primary (if not only) remaining weapon.   Stuck high up escalation ladder while coefficient of chaos is falling.

Oil falling in price, global equities rising again takes heat off of Trump but note also in present context He is talking of raising another $200B while Mr Hegseth is confirming intent to continue forward i.e. regime maybe gains some extra revenue but becomes yet weaker going forward.  

• In response, if regime ramps attacks against Arabs, a larger defensive/offensive coalition might quickly form.

The internal debates within Iranian centers of regime power likely to become quite acrimonious if not incoherent to such an extent regime begins to change itself.  True, maybe into something  worse.. but if that happens, the noted 'coalition' will quickly scale in size, power, and resolve.

  
The end-state of this hypothetical scenario finds regime closer possibly to 'doing something crazy' compared to any moment in regime's 47 year history.