19 NOV 2024
"Would Khamenei’s death bring reform or revolution to Iran?
Iranian journalist and analyst Ashkan Safaei Hakimi says there are two main scenarios: In one, a new leader attempts to mend relations with the West, likely creating only the perception of reform, and in another, political instability triggers a popular uprising, potentially leading to regime change."
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Note, young lady released today for disrobing to undies then walking around in Tehran.. rather than regime opting to operational norm, then beat down, then incarcerate Her, if not kill Her, regime decided to let Her go.
Noted previously, if regime did not A/V cook this 'event' no doubt [this] was an opportunity. Tehran attempting (again.. previously w/Rouhani govt) to recharacterize itself as warmer friendlier more inclusive Islamic revolutionary govt focused upon destruction of Israel.
Why ? Oct 7 2023 not only failed to achieve objectives but paved way for Israel to eliminate Haniyeh, Sinwar, Nasrallah, numerous apex level officers and related command centers.. weapons etc. Houthi and Iraq/Syria based assets presently are being deterred but will be destroyed by US/Israel forces if necessary in defense. Tehran's 'axis of attack' has now brought war to Lebanon. Point one.
Point two, despite appearances, Tehran not as internally stable and coherent. Military, Social, Political, and Economic fronts all are active and threatening. By reversing policy re the young lady's protest/behavior, and slow walking a counter-strike to Israel, regime indicating its acknowledgment of fact larger policy ecosystem was based upon a number of assumptions and miscalculations. This present state does guarantee regime will not go back to square one and double down on previous Military, Social, Political, and Economic guidance.
The (Iranian) 'contingency plan' already in play. Mr Khamenei, same for every leader, is shadowed by the 'what if'.
> So, naturally the question.. " what then is the what if, and what then if then.. and when ? "