Not necessarily probable but possible: Maduro negotiates for time. Trump might present a list of demands to which Maduro agrees (but plans to slow walk everything) in expectation of outlasting Trump presidency. Similar to what Tehran is doing.
re Tehran
Ali Akbar Salehi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in 2021 interview [in response to] attacks upon surface buildings at Natanz main facility summer of 2020, Iran began relocating the 'most sensitive' components of enrichment program from Natanz into nearby 'Pickaxe Mountain' (officially: Mt Kolang Gaz-La) [ not targeted in recent air-strikes ]
Fordo was thought to be sufficient security at depth but quite likely Tehran was already becoming aware of American bunker buster program and GBU-57. Since then (2021) activity at Pickaxe rapidly increased in scale. IAEA has never been granted access to secret (nature of internal operations) site. The mountain provides both greater internal volume and deep structure compared to Fordo. If what Dr Salehi stated in 2021 was correct, it is presumptuous to claim Tehran's nuclear weapon potential has been obliterated.
18 NOV 2025
Designation of Cartel de los Soles as FTO (foreign terrorist organization) was announced by Marco Rubio on Sunday.
“Headed by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted the institutions of government in Venezuela and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted by and with other designated FTOs as well as for trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe”
Referring to Maduro as leader of an entity designated FTO 'characterizes' if not defines president of Venezuela as nacro-terrorist responsible for deaths of American citizens.
People can argue the narrative and intent of all this but it does clear path for Trump to take action.
[it] does not fully substantiate land attack but 'clears path toward', as noted below, operations narratively functional, precise, persuasive, and brief.
Why do drug boats continue if being targeted ?
["Recruitment of Novices: When experienced crew members stay ashore to avoid being targeted, cartels simply recruit novices, many of whom are in dire financial circumstances, to crew the high-risk runs."]
However: Say for example they have three 225hp outboards, how much fuel is consumed, where are they going w/that short a range of operation before docking to refuel ?
225hp engine 3 mpg @4000 rpm ~ 25 mph x(3 engines) = 1 mile per gallon
225hp 8 gal/hr x (3 engines) 300 mi/24 (gal/hr) = ~12 hr 12(25 mph) = 300 miles
300 gallons fuel (if even that much) with excellent water/weather conditions gets them 300 miles. 8 gal/hr (3 engines) 300 mi/24 (gal/hr) @25 mph = 300 miles.
Mentioned previously, when CVN-78 arrives, Maduro will be given opportunity to talk with Trump/Admin. (as Bolton noted- Trump with gun on table, and my first thought when this began.. the interrogation scene from 007 Golden Eye)
Maduro might be prepared to litigate ('the' land attack) case on world stage. Maduro team might believe Trump admin has not provided what world expects as a reasonable presentation of evidence.
True, drug boats are easy for public to see and creates a functional pretext Maduro cannot effectively challenge but land operations require some measure of public acceptance as reasonable and proportionate.
If Trump begins air operations against land targets (after 'talking' w/ Maduro) He should be prepared to present a credible and persuasive explanation. No question Pentagon knows of everything but Trump must be able to sell it.
While clear to everyone Maduro and Venezuelan power-elite are 'involved' at every level of operations, land attack must then be narratively functional, precise, persuasive, and brief.
If however, Maduro accepts Trumps terms, and kinetic operations might be averted, it is very unlikely things will change. Similar to what is occurring in Tehran present moment, Venezuelan elite will restructure and innovate having learned from the experience.
06 NOV 2025
'American Hemisphere'
re Venezuela/Colombia
Everyone speculating about 'war in Venezuela'.. possible but not likely.
CVN-78 just now leaving Mediterranean for the Atlantic. Once in place, final coordinating operations underway, Mr Trump might begin talking 'at' Maduro (and those enabling him) i.e. 'one last chance' before calibrated campaign of precision strikes begins against military-narco infrastructure and personnel.
Venezuelan military, similar to Iranian IRGC is thought to be integrated into both civilian economy and illicit activities.
Tehran maintains a long-term economic/military relationship with Maduro and the amount of intel on subject likely to be extensive. No question a target rich environment but Mr Trump is not 'starting a war' although many will attempt to frame as such.
'Maduro team' (Colectivos, paramilitary, and power elite) built a military sufficient to secure 'the business' against local neighborhood threat. Trump has amassed enough force in theater to degrade and deter- Whether or not a 'war' develops to some extent, at some point, is dependent upon how much Russia supports resistance.
The promotional 'ground invasion' narrative spun in major media is inconceivable. More than 100,000 US personnel were active in Afghanistan.
Accepted as fact by all observers, this will not stop the drug problem but maybe this is not the point, and similar mil/narco entities in Colombia might be included in the operation.
Note: [the] Project for a New American Century contemplated 'century' not 'decade', and 'The American Hemisphere is not negotiable'. Trump renamed GOM to become Gulf of America. Now He must defend it.
Those operatives in the 'fast boats' being targeted? they're not cruising to American shores. An entire regional network exists.. a hemispheric threat.