06 OCT 2025
["just war, notion that the resort to armed force (jus ad bellum) is justified under certain conditions; also, the notion that the use of such force should be limited in certain ways. Most scholars agree that, to be considered just, a war must meet several jus ad bellum requirements. "]
From here, critics launch into counter-narrative development, attempting to frame Trump's (potential) action as 'war'.
Possibly to some extent this is why Mr Putin always characterizes his agenda against Ukraine not as war but 'special military operation'. Noted previously, Mr Trump might do same re Venezuelan cartels i.e. similar to Putin's 'de-nazification' narrative.
Mr Trump does not require congress to approve..depending upon how He characterizes operations and to what extent these operations are 'realistically proportionate'.
2001, Congress voted to advance the concept of preemptive action against specific types and characterizations of threat.. the AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) speaks (of) this but does not definitively control/prohibit.
If Democrats maneuver to impede Trump, He has veto power so any congressional action present moment is optics.
"White House sent clarification to Congress 01 OCT 2025, ['the president determined these cartels are non-state armed groups, designated them as terrorist organizations, and determined that their actions constitute an armed attack against the United States'] "
Same may be said for expected UN response function if/when strikes begin. UN member dissent ('those' dissenting) is limited to procedural/political condemnation.
04 NOV 2025
Good article placing things into perspective.
Venezuela-Russia missile threat was mentioned weeks prior re potential Tomahawk delivery to Ukraine. Mr Putin might use Tomahawk/UKR as noted in article but also as opportunity to rally Russian public as Putin likely to say He is managing a 'special military operation' while US and EU have now (with LRSO weapons) essentially (his narrative) declared war against Russia.
Russian economy is expected to weaken further in 2026 and of specific interest to note with regard to GDP, there are two primary spheres of activity: military-industrial complex, and separately the civilian side. 2026 the domestic non-military side expected to weaken (despite official pronouncements) to a level where public begins to challenge leadership. This in some measure might explain (among other factors) why Mr Putin appears undeterred. He needs something to generate more public buy-in, and recharacterizing special military operation as 'war'[targeted at home audience, not official policy] blaming US/EU for escalation 'war against us', might create the conditions (domestic perceptions).
[“Back in the time of the czars, or Stalin, Russia’s great strength was that it was so big that it could always just absorb invading armies,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
“Now that Ukraine has the ability to reach so deep into Russia and strike various parts of its infrastructure, that vastness has become a vulnerability.”
Despite earlier predictions of a meltdown caused by sanctions and war spending, the Russian economy has remained relatively resilient—but that can’t last forever, added Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin who served as an adviser to the Russian Central Bank until 2022.
“It’s not that they will run out of money. But they will no longer be able to finance the situation using traditional ways, through taxes, through surgical spending cuts. They will no longer be able to maintain the illusion that nothing significant is going on.”
The possible pathways will be to ramp up printing money, spurring inflation, to implement drastic welfare cuts, and to replace the current system of recruiting volunteer soldiers to fight in Ukraine with forcible mobilization, Prokopenko said. All of these steps could become triggers for unrest.]
'American Hemisphere'
re Venezuela/Colombia
Everyone speculating about 'war in Venezuela'.. possible but not likely.
CVN-78 just now leaving Mediterranean for the Atlantic. Once in place, final coordinating operations underway, Mr Trump might begin talking 'at' Maduro (and those enabling him) i.e. 'one last chance' before calibrated campaign of precision strikes begins against military-narco infrastructure and personnel.
Venezuelan military, similar to Iranian IRGC is thought to be integrated into both civilian economy and illicit activities. Tehran maintains a long-term economic/military relationship with Maduro and the amount of intel on subject must certainly represent many years in compilation, extensive in detail. No question a target rich environment but Mr Trump is not 'starting a war' although many will attempt to frame as such.
'Maduro team' (colectivos paramilitary and power elite) built a military sufficient to secure 'the business' against local neighborhood threat. Trump has amassed enough force in theater to degrade and deter- Whether or not a 'war' develops to some extent, at some point, is dependent upon how much Russia supports resistance.
Accepted as fact by all observers, this will not stop the drug problem but maybe this is not the point, and similar mil/narco entities in Colombia might be included in the campaign.
Note: [the] Project for a New American Century contemplated 'century' not 'decade', and 'The American Hemisphere is not negotiable'.