02 MAY 2026
- Q4 2025
(Bloomberg) -- ["The amount of crude being hauled across the world’s oceans continues to increase, as rising production and greater distances between exporters and importers keeps cargoes at sea for longer.
In October 2025, the amount of oil stored or transported on tankers reached a record high of nearly 1.4 billion barrels, marking the highest level in data going back to 2016. This unprecedented volume, driven by rising OPEC+ production and high output from the Americas, signaled a significant supply glut that weighed on global prices, causing them to fall significantly by year-end."]
- Prior to [the war/ 'special military operation'? not Russia-Ukraine.. Iran] beginning, conveniently, a record amount of oil was on sea and terrestrial storage.
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
["Donald Trump has reportedly directed his team to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
With key export hubs like Kharg Island nearing storage limits due to restricted shipping, Bessent said that Iran may soon be forced to reduce oil production.
Energy Aspects, another London-based independent energy research firm frequently cited by Reuters and Bloomberg, puts usable storage at only 30 million barrels . Under that scenario, storage runs out in about 16 days.
Kpler, the global commodity data firm, showed Kharg Island inventories at roughly 18 million barrels as of mid-March — about 58% of the island’s 31 million barrel capacity, leaving around 13 million barrels of buffer. With the blockade in effect since April 13 and exports blocked, that margin fills at roughly 1.5 million barrels per day — meaning Kharg Island storage may reach capacity around April 21-22 (today). Iran, however, has storage at multiple locations including Bandar Mahshahr, Assaluyeh, Kharg, and inland storage connected to its major oil fields like Ahvaz, Marun, and Gachsaran."]
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["On Monday, Iran made Donald Trump an offer: It would open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade while nuclear negotiations continued. On Wednesday, Trump rejected this offer, promising to keep the blockade in place until Iran agrees to America’s terms on the nuclear issue. The blockade “is genius,” he said, and “now they have to cry uncle. That’s all they have to do. Just say, ‘We give up.’” "] - Atlantic 01 MAY 2026
> Tehran continues offering 'ideas' knowing Mr Trump will reject them. Tehran might be trying to maneuver Trump into appearing as the one obstructing progress while the world increasingly is paying the price. The 'blockade' is beginning to create structural incoherence within Tehran forcing both redesign and reorientation of power. The world is growing weary of 'Epic Fury' but each day Iranian regime moves closer to edge.
Many find it true, regime change is in fact underway in Tehran but maybe not for the better, but also maybe creating an opportunity as regime becomes increasingly intransigent and threatening. Planners might see an increasingly stubborn and belligerent Tehran as an 'expected' if not necessary feature on the journey to victory.
Note conditions might deteriorate more quickly than some expect. Exxon's CEO explains:
Exxon Mobil
["CEO Darren Woods warned Friday that the market has not absorbed the full impact of the unprecedented oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The disruption has been mitigated by the large number of loaded oil tankers that were in transit during the first month of the war, Woods told investors on Exxon’s first-quarter earnings call. Strategic petroleum reserves have also been released and commercial inventories drawn down, the CEO said.
One of these supply sources will become exhausted as the conflict goes on, Woods said. Oil prices will then increase as the strait remains closed, he said.
“It’s obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn’t seen the full impact of that yet,” Woods said.
“There’s more to come if the strait remains closed,” the CEO said.
Governments and industry will need to refill their strategic reserves and commercial inventories if stockpiles are depleted when the conflict ends, Woods said. This will bring more demand to the market and put upward pressure on prices, he said."]
True, Tehran very much wants the strait to reopen but only if Trump agrees to conditions allowing regime to survive, rebuild, and resume regional objectives. As Exxon's CEO indicates, if strait remains closed, the pressure in system will spike and quickly. Has Iranian regime already lost ? or do they have some hidden card/s yet to play ?
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